Forecasting At-Retail Success

Willard Bishop Consulting has published yet another thought provoking Competitive Edge newsletter. The latest discusses how retailers may be underutilizing forecasting as a means to drive strategy and tactics. As with past Bishop publications, the authors tie in the importance of using effective forecasting methods into the four basic merchandising elements of price, promotion, assortment and space.

As the article points out, there are many different types of forecasting methods and tools. As methods have become more sophisticated, they have also become more complex. Different methods are being used for different purposes, often within the same retailer. As the old saying goes, “the devil is in the details,” With the ever increasing level of complexity, even the smallest of data variations can have a negative effect on accurate and effective forecasting.

As experts at executing at-retail merchandising and marketing initiatives for manufacturers and retailers, the members of NARMS can have a huge positive impact on both ends of the forecasting system. Since most methods depend on a historical analysis, the extent to which in-store go-to-market plans were carried out to the letter has a direct effect on resulting sales and usable statistical observations. Once the data is processed, and new or revised merchandising plans are hatched, the lack of quick and accurate roll-out in the aisles may make the entire exercise moot.

As mentioned earlier, there are many forecasting techniques and tools available that can help trading partners develop superior merchandising strategies, reduce risks and make better decisions. As experts in at-retail execution, it is incumbent on NARMS members to make sure customers know the importance and far reaching impact of getting it done at store-level. We again thank Willard Bishop for sharing the November edition of Competitive Edge. You can download it by clicking here.

Nov 26, 2010 IRI/Morning NewsBeat

Below is the list of articles you will find for the week ending 11/26/10 edition of Retail Industry News.

- Brookshire’s Gets FRESH
- Walgreens Joins Electric Car Charging Movement
- Sansolo Speaks: “The Sum of the Parts”
- Just-in-Time Purchasing Becomes A Consumer Imperative
- Stop The Presses. Study Says Parents Influence How Their Kids Eat.
- 7-Eleven Introduces More Private Brand Wines
- FastNewsBeat
- Executive Suite

Click here to read Retail Industry News

Nov 19, 2010 IRI/Morning NewsBeat

Below is the list of articles you will find for the week ending 11/19/10 edition of Retail Industry News.

- Poll: Kids’ Eating Habits Leave Something To Be Desired
- Oases, Deserts & The Promise Of Increased Competition
- Retailers Look To Stuff More Into Thanksgiving Day
- Popping Up All Over, And Disintermediating Retailers
- Sansolo Speaks: “Supply Chains Get Cool”
- Americans Shifting Away From Credit Card Usage For Holidays
- FMI Urges Passage Of Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010
- Save Mart Opens New, Value-Driven Format
- LA County Bans Plastic Grocery Bags
- Walmart Commits To Four Washington, DC, Stores
- Report: America’s Fruit, Vegetable Consumption Below Optimal
- Estimates Suggest High Traffic Count On Black Friday
- FastNewsBeat
- The MNB Wal-Mart Watch
- Executive Suite

Click here to read Retail Industry News

2011 Spring Conference Harvest Looking Bountiful

Thanksgiving means many things to many people. For some, it is a time to give thanks for the bountiful harvest of crops that help to sustain their families and the food supply of a nation. At NARMS, it is only appropriate to use a retail term and take an inventory of the many items that we plan to harvest in the coming months. Today we take a look in particular at the progress being made toward the 16th Annual NARMS Meeting, Spring Conference and Exposition to be held on April 9-12 in Monterey, California. We are truly blessed to have so many outstanding speakers, presenters and sponsors already committed to the event.

The Manufacturer-Retailer Connection Forum looks to be even bigger and better than the debut last year. An all-star line-up of trading partners await to address members of the at-retail merchandising and marketing industry including Spin Master, Walgreen’s, Starbucks, Ghirardelli, Save Mart, Just Born, Vann’s and Pep Boy’s. Harold Lloyd, a frequent spring conference contributor, has signed on to moderate the event. We are grateful to the many members and associates who have provided potential contacts and introductions in putting this exciting program together. Although this is a robust line-up, we are still seeking more manufacturers and retailers to add to the program. Please contact NARMS HQ with any additional leads, thoughts or ideas.

Spring Conference has always been an educational event and 2011 is no exception. You can view the agenda by visiting the conference center on www.narms.com, but here are a few recently added sessions: The second MSO Division session will feature Al McClain of RetailWire as he presents - Shopper Insights: Actionable or Academic: RetailWire and DemandTec’s new collaborative shopper insights research findings. The PIC Division has also announced the content of its second session as Mark Hunter presents- Emerging Retail Trends 2011- with an emphasis on PIC activities. Russell Hollrah is on tap to provide a Labor Update for the initial Event Marketing Division session. Hollrah will also be on hand for 30 minute consults with interested members. Stay tuned for further developments as the conference agenda fills out.

Spring Conference is enjoying tremendous support via sponsorships. With four months to go, we are only about $6,000 from the total last year and look to be on target to get back to 2008 and 2009 levels. The sponsorship campaign has been energized by not only the generosity of past contributors, but also an influx of new sponsors. There are still some exciting opportunities left, so if you are interested, consult the Sponsorship Opportunity brochure available on-line at www.narms com.

And finally, our association is nothing if not for our wonderful members. We encourage all of you to renew your membership and also register for the 2011 Spring Conference to take advantage of the learning and business building opportunities. At this time of giving thanks, we at NARMS express our gratitude for the opportunity to be of service to you, the members of NARMS. Have a happy Thanksgiving Holiday with family and friends.

Collaboration Agents

In a column on November 15, David Orgel, Editor-in-Chief of Supermarket News, reported on the recent Category Management Conference in Atlanta. The conference was sponsored by the Category Management Association. In the column, Orgel asks what drives a retailer to collaborate with a supplier. The answer, he says, is remarkably simple. The supplier needs to offer expertise that the retailer cannot get on their own.

As providers of at-retail merchandising and marketing support services, NARMS members have been operating in this arena since the beginning. In fact, you could say that trading partner collaboration is a core competency of in-store service companies. When an MSO, Event Marketer, PIC or IFBA member takes on business, it generally originates from either a manufacturer or a retailer. However, regardless of who is paying the bill, NARMS members know that they serve several stake holders in the process. This often puts the service company in a position to be a valuable conduit toward the ultimate goal of trading partner collaboration.

One senior retail manager told Orgel that vendor studies performed though testing and consumer research are particularly valuable and can lead to direct change in retail strategy. NARMS members take shelf-level execution problems out of the variables and help both parties bring clean and actionable observations to any long term partnerships. And beyond execution, NARMS members can help to gather and quickly report data to trading partners using trained and certified field associates and leading edge field reporting technology.

In most cases, manufacturers are embedded in certain categories while retailers have hundreds of categories to analyze with limited resources. Because of this dynamic, a growing number of retailers are establishing formal collaboration programs with their suppliers. The members of NARMS are uniquely positioned to provide the expertise, activities and information needed to close the transaction.

Sales Tax: To Collect or Not Collect

With many states experiencing budgetary shortfalls, it is inevitable that they will become much more aggressive in holding businesses to their responsibilities. It is vital that the members of the at-retail merchandising and marketing service industry know exactly what their obligation is. The next NARMS Webinar will answer the timely question - Sales Tax: What is Your Obligation? The session is this week, Thursday, November 18 at 1:00 PM CST, and will feature Diane Yetter, an unparalleled expert in the field of sales and use tax. The NARMS Webinar series, another NARMS-U educational offering, is sponsored by Natural Insight and brought to you through the technology of ReadyTalk.

The hour-long event will discuss the requirements for collection of sales tax. With the “Amazon” collection provisions in New York and other states as well as the new reporting requirements in Colorado and Oklahoma, retail businesses must be aware of their obligations. We will discuss the activities that create a collection responsibility in not only these states but in general. Ignoring your responsibility could result in a significant cost to your business. Practical information will be provided about how to monitor your activities, address risks and implement corrective actions. As always, attendees will have an opportunity to ask questions via the chat function.

Due to the importance of the subject matter, NARMS is very fortunate to have such a quality resource. Yetter is a strategist, advisor, speaker, author and expert witness in the field of sales and use tax. She is president of Yetter Consulting Services, a firm that works with an extensive network of capable partners to deliver sales tax services including system analysis and strategy, Vertex and Sabrix implementation assistance, training, audit defense, refund reviews, manuals, transactional planning and general consulting. Yetter works with clients of all sizes and myriad industries such as manufacturing, publishing, software, retail, service and construction. Prior to founding the company in 1996, she was a tax professional for Arthur Andersen, Quaker Oats and the Kansas Department of Revenue.

The session is complimentary to NARMS members as a membership service but is also made available to other interested persons at a non-member rate of $99.95. We encourage you to share this invitation with other co-workers and anyone else who might gain value from this information-sharing opportunity. Such an important topic deserves an hour of your time. Join the many of your fellow NARMS members who regularly take advantage of this tremendous value added benefit of your membership. Click here to register.

Yetter Consulting Services November 2010 Newsletter The Sales Tax Advisor

IN THIS ISSUE
Sales Tax Institute Announces 2011 Courses
Significant Sales Tax News
What We’re Reading

Since 1996, Yetter Consulting Services has minimized risk for its clients by changing the way companies think about sales tax liability. Yetter Consulting Services works with financial and tax department leaders to develop sales tax strategies and implement systems that deliver results. Yetter Consulting Services is headquartered in Chicago and serves major industries and global companies.

Read the newletter

Nov 12, 2010 IRI/Morning NewsBeat

Below is the list of articles you will find for the week ending 11/12/10 edition of Retail Industry News.

- Sansolo Speaks: “Sanity and Civility”
- Winn-Dixie’s Lynch Looks To Put Some Wins On The Board
- Publix Finding Consumer Enthusiasm For Online Shopping
- Target To Buck Black Friday Trend
- Small Is In, At Least For Now
- Dave Dillon’s Ground Game
- BJ’s For Sale
- Safeway Raises More Than $16 Million To Combat Breast Cancer
- FastNewsBeat
- The MNB Wal-Mart Watch
- Executive Suite

Click here to read Retail Industry News

Filling the Gaps Again

At-retail merchandising and marketing services have always been about filling in the gaps. Whether that be as simple as placing promotional hangers on products, building end-cap displays, cutting in new product, or fixing out-of-stocks and distribution voids, the members of NARMS have positioned themselves in the merchandising service gap. That gap exists because manufacturer and retailer store level initiatives run into the reality of the focus, skill and availability of in-store resources. Some recent Supermarket News research shows that there may be another type of gap forming. This one is formed between the understanding of how customers shop and the way retailers and suppliers believe they do.

The research was conducted by SN in conjunction with Every Day with Rachel Ray magazine and industry analyst Phil Lempert. More than 1,200 consumers where asked about food shopping and meal planning, while SN polled their subscribers about how well they know their consumers. Some of the results suggest we may be experiencing a Shopper Marketing gap as changes in consumer behavior have outpaced trading partner perception.

Here are some examples. Fifty-three percent of retailers said they believe loyalty was a main reason why consumers selected a brand, while only about 19.8% of consumers considered loyalty a prime factor. About 10% of consumers said advertising was a major factor in buying decisions while 28% of retailers believe it is. When it comes to on sale items, both parties were in agreement that 81% of consumers seek out special deals. However, only 50% of retailers think that shoppers always bring a list to the store, but 77% of consumers said they always do. Suppliers believe that consumers were influenced by in-store media more than retailers do.

Surely, this column is only scratching the surface of this SN research, so it is important that you follow this link and check out the data for yourself. But the takeaway is that these gaps in the understanding of the factors in Shopper Marketing may present opportunities for the members of NARMS to be of even greater service. The ability to gather and quickly report shelf level conditions can only become more helpful and valuable. The ability to make speedy and consistent adjustments across all stores and channels can only help bring perceptions more in-line. Are some of these differences in opinion just a matter of retailers and manufacturers playing catch-up to recession-driven consumer behavior changes, or are they affected by the lack of execution of well intended plans? NARMS members are in a great position to help answer those questions and once again, fill the gap.

Big Spenders Shopping Multiple Channels

Some recent research by Nielsen Company shows that shoppers who frequent more than two retail channels spend much more money than one-stop shoppers. In 15 categories examined by Nielsen, the majority of sales, three to five times more, come from households who buy in multiple retail channels. This finding shines a spotlight on major challenges being faced by retailers and manufacturers. Retailers continue to strive to create loyal shoppers while manufacturers want to assure distribution to all the channels where their customers shop. As member of at-retail merchandising and marketing services industry, NARMS members need to focus on how their offerings can serve both masters.

Because this finding is largely dependent on the product category, it is helpful to know which categories are considered multi-channel and which are more destination type products. For example, Nielsen reports that 83 percent of paper products buyers shop in two or more channels. On the other end of the spectrum are disposable diapers, coffee, vitamins and cough and cold product in which about half the sales occur in an exclusive channel.

According to Nielsen, trading partners are approaching the challenge in different ways. Loyalty card programs are helping retailers analyze shopper purchases to seek out targets of promotional opportunity. Another tactic being used by grocers is connecting store purchases to savings on gas purchases. Manufacturers, who want to maintain broad distribution, have begun to create unique product assortment targeted to a specific channel or even retailer.

For NARMS members, these challenges should create even more opportunities. Past industry sponsored research has shown that member’s customers direct the majority of the at-retail merchandising mix toward the big three. While that is not likely to dramatically change, this Nielsen research suggests that there may be an increasing amount of significant opportunity in multiple channels, or perhaps some more diverse services in existing channel specialties. The key is always being in touch with the needs of the customer. To get a better understanding of the 15 categories studied by Nielsen, click on the link here.